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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team SMGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 12 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 6 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
83%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skem · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Jaunuel · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulnit · 5 games
80%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 4 games
75%

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Poloson · 15 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 11 games
45%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Moon · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
478 picks · 512 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
450 picks · 215 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 669 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 615 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
336 picks · 711 bans
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 768 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
317 picks · 326 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
314 picks · 650 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:14
Geek Fam 56%Team SMG 44%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
50% · 128 games53% · 110 games
Faceless VoidMidOne
Faceless Void
Sven
SvenUlnit
50% · 61 game48% · 119 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
52% · 236 games49% · 165 games
MiranaAhFu
Mirana
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSkem
50% · 16 games46% · 47 games
InvokerJaunuel
Invoker
Game 2prediction missed20:25
Geek Fam 56%Team SMG 44%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Team SMG in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinUlnit
48% · 28 games45% · 30 games
BloodseekerMidOne
Bloodseeker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderForce
62% · 48 games48% · 19 games
InvokerNo[o]ne
Invoker
Warlock
WarlockSkem
little data49% · 45 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
41% · 25 games53% · 7 games
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed14:18
Geek Fam 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Team SMG in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
48% · 31 game47% · 105 games
Drow RangerMidOne
Drow Ranger
Axe
AxeForce
51% · 12 games54% · 157 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Marci
MarciSkem
49% · 97 games52% · 117 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
49% · 291 game52% · 52 games
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 57%
Series resultTeam SMG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3