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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 45 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 37 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 33 games
64%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 14 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 12 games
83%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 12 games
42%
Muerta
Muertasignature
dalul · 9 games
67%
Axe
Axesignature
Fbz · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
508 picks · 414 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
482 picks · 261 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
472 picks · 353 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
408 picks · 355 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
363 picks · 822 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 872 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 203 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:27
HULIGANI 54%REKONIX 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by REKONIX in 28:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidssnovv1
54% · 64 games61% · 45 games
Lone DruidTraVins
Lone Druid
Tiny
TinyMirage
41% · 287 games54% · 120 games
Keeper of the LightinYourdreaM
Keeper of the Light
Doom
DoomCorrupted
52% · 142 games46% · 366 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
46% · 301 game57% · 88 games
VenomancerVarizh
Venomancer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRESPECT
48% · 79 games47% · 254 games
Ringmasterdalul
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed14:25
HULIGANI 56%REKONIX 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by REKONIX in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
Viperssnovv1
45% · 76 games52% · 111 games
KezTraVins
Kez
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCorrupted
51% · 98 games53% · 259 games
BeastmasterinYourdreaM
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarMirage
60% · 190 games50% · 192 games
AxeFbz
Axe
Chen
ChenRESPECT
51% · 119 games40% · 23 games
LichVarizh
Lich
Muerta
Muertasayuw
44% · 151 game47% · 49 games
Grimstrokedalul
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 57%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2