IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Швецияloss 0:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Кыргызстанwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Швеция
Dawnbreakeroften banned
woMy · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Silencer
Hyde · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Hyde · 1 game
Кыргызстан
Bloodseekeroften banned
Max · 1 game
Dark Willow
Zayac · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
483 picks · 516 bans
Rubick
449 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 624 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 709 bans
Timbersaw
334 picks · 775 bans
Spirit Breaker
322 picks · 329 bans
Undying
316 picks · 523 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Швеция
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Кыргызстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:47
Швеция 37%Кыргызстан 63%
The model gave 63% on Кыргызстан — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 1:03:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteКыргызстан · 63%
Series resultКыргызстан 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1