ESL Challenger China Season 3 x ACL 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Resilienceloss 1:3series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Vici Gamingwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Resilience
Rubick
pLAnet · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 5 games
Muertaoften banned
poyoyo · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Jakiro
zzq · 3 games
Kezoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
zzq · 3 games
Vici Gaming
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 17 games
Tinysignature
Xm · 16 games
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
Rubicksignature
XinQ · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
510 picks · 417 bans
Hoodwink
481 picks · 259 bans
Phoenix
481 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 354 bans
Tusk
412 picks · 357 bans
Beastmaster
364 picks · 818 bans
Puck
356 picks · 870 bans
Warlock
345 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Team Resilience
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total84% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
Team Resilience 29%Vici Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Painpoyoyo
Monkey Kingshiro
Bristlebackniu
Ember SpiritXm
PangolierEcho
SlardarFaith_bian
Earth SpiritpLAnet
MuertaXinQ
Winter Wyvernzzq
Venomancery`
Game 2prediction correct8:27
Team Resilience 30%Vici Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezpoyoyo
Ursashiro
Timbersawniu
BristlebackFaith_bian
PangolierEcho
SlardarXm
Dazzlezzq
Winter Wyverny`
WindrangerpLAnet
ClockwerkXinQ
Game 3prediction correct12:24
Team Resilience 29%Vici Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 46:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinypoyoyo
Windrangershiro
Pangolierniu
PuckXm
Sand KingEcho
TimbersawFaith_bian
Warlockzzq
Venomancery`
HoodwinkpLAnet
LargoXinQ
Game 4prediction correct11:29
Team Resilience 31%Vici Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectrepoyoyo
Muertashiro
Queen of PainEcho
Storm SpiritXm
Tidehunterniu
NecrophosFaith_bian
Earth SpiritpLAnet
EarthshakerXinQ
Winter Wyvernzzq
Pugnay`
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 84%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4