IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Румынияloss 0:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Монголияwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Румыния
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
MagE- · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
islA · 1 game
Tusk
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Монголия
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
483 picks · 516 bans
Rubick
448 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 624 bans
Morphling
336 picks · 708 bans
Timbersaw
334 picks · 773 bans
Spirit Breaker
322 picks · 329 bans
Undying
316 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Румыния
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:42
Румыния 39%Монголия 61%
The model gave 61% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия in 30:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 61%
Series resultМонголия 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1