IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Мьянмаwin 1:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Эквадорloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Мьянма
No games played over 6 months.
Эквадор
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
483 picks · 516 bans
Rubick
448 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 624 bans
Morphling
336 picks · 708 bans
Timbersaw
334 picks · 773 bans
Spirit Breaker
322 picks · 329 bans
Undying
316 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Мьянма
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Мьянма
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:14
Мьянма 70%Эквадор 30%
The model gave 70% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Эквадор in 31:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteМьянма · 70%
Series resultМьянма 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1