IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Филиппиныwin 1:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Мьянмаloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Филиппины
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 1 game
Мьянма
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
484 picks · 517 bans
Rubick
447 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 671 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 623 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
Timbersaw
333 picks · 774 bans
Spirit Breaker
323 picks · 328 bans
Undying
318 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Филиппины
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Филиппины
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:24
Филиппины 57%Мьянма 43%
The model gave 57% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Мьянма in 39:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteФилиппины · 57%
Series resultФилиппины 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1