IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Египетwin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Аргентинаloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Египет
No games played over 6 months.
Аргентина
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
484 picks · 517 bans
Rubick
447 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 671 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 623 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
Timbersaw
333 picks · 774 bans
Spirit Breaker
323 picks · 328 bans
Undying
318 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Египет
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Египет
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:36
Египет 53%Аргентина 47%
The model gave 53% on Египет — the game was taken by Аргентина in 43:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteЕгипет · 53%
Series resultЕгипет 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1