IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Индонезияloss 0:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Болгарияwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Индонезия
No games played over 6 months.
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
487 picks · 518 bans
Rubick
448 picks · 218 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 673 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 621 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 706 bans
Timbersaw
332 picks · 774 bans
Spirit Breaker
323 picks · 329 bans
Undying
320 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Индонезия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Болгария
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:25
Индонезия 45%Болгария 55%
The model gave 55% on Болгария — the game was taken by Болгария in 32:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteБолгария · 55%
Series resultБолгария 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1