The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
Mirana
Gilgir · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
Natus Vincere
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
mellojul · 8 games
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 7 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 7 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
Magnussignature
Malik · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
487 picks · 520 bans
Rubick
446 picks · 220 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 674 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 623 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 707 bans
Timbersaw
332 picks · 775 bans
Spirit Breaker
324 picks · 329 bans
Undying
320 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 76%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:39
One Move 37%Natus Vincere 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMunkushi~
SvenShigetsu
DoomAfterLife
Earth Spiritmellojul
InvokerAinkrad
LycanMalik
Skywrath MagePanto
OracleMalady
RubickXakoda
Lionxsvampire
Game 2prediction missed36:14
One Move 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by One Move in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Faceless VoidShigetsu
DawnbreakerAfterLife
BrewmasterMalik
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Primal Beastmellojul
Shadow DemonPanto
Rubickxsvampire
LichXakoda
Vengeful SpiritMalady
Game 3prediction missed50:35
One Move 42%Natus Vincere 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by One Move in 1:01:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
RazorShigetsu
EarthshakerAinkrad
Ember Spiritmellojul
Legion CommanderAfterLife
Dark SeerMalik
Shadow DemonPanto
EnchantressMalady
DisruptorXakoda
Lionxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 69%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3