The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AcatSukiloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 8 games
Snapfire
FCR · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 7 games
Mirana
Kingrd · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 6 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
AcatSuki
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
488 picks · 523 bans
Rubick
446 picks · 223 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 679 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 625 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 709 bans
Timbersaw
333 picks · 777 bans
Spirit Breaker
324 picks · 331 bans
Undying
320 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:19
Keyd Stars 57%AcatSuki 43%
The model gave 57% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 44:14.
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Keyd Stars 57%AcatSuki 43%
The model gave 57% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 30:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 57%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2