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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Qhaliloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 10 games
90%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Michael · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
57%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mjz · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
60%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
20%

Qhali

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 14 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MonHty · 13 games
31%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 10 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Luis · 8 games
25%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 7 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkz
MonHty · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
492 picks · 526 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
448 picks · 225 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
405 picks · 684 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
361 picks · 628 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
336 picks · 708 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
334 picks · 778 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
325 picks · 333 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
320 picks · 517 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:25
Thunder Awaken 68%Qhali 32%
The model gave 68% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Qhali in 35:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSmiling Knight
65% · 55 games50% · 28 games
Troll WarlordCucahook
Troll Warlord
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetILICH-
55% · 171 game42% · 155 games
Ember SpiritRobo-Z
Ember Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMjz
51% · 30 games41% · 12 games
BrewmasterHermit
Brewmaster
36% · 58 games
DawnbreakerMonHty
Dawnbreaker
57% · 3 games
WarlockLuis
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct22:22
Thunder Awaken 66%Qhali 34%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 49:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSmiling Knight
47% · 46 games34% · 45 games
Phantom AssassinCucahook
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterILICH-
57% · 159 games50% · 57 games
Queen of PainRobo-Z
Queen of Pain
Oracle
OracleMjz
50% · 31 game54% · 66 games
VisageHermit
Visage
43% · 35 games
Earth SpiritMonHty
Earth Spirit
49% · 33 games
Elder TitanLuis
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct21:18
Thunder Awaken 69%Qhali 31%
The model gave 69% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
47% · 212 games51% · 80 games
LinaRobo-Z
Lina
Beastmaster
BeastmasterILICH-
53% · 250 games46% · 55 games
DawnbreakerCucahook
Dawnbreaker
Oracle
OracleMjz
56% · 30 games54% · 106 games
VisageHermit
Visage
43% · 237 games
Ember SpiritMonHty
Ember Spirit
55% · 14 games
GrimstrokeLuis
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 79%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3