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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 13 games
54%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 11 games
27%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 10 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
80%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 12 games
42%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
27%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
495 picks · 528 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
447 picks · 224 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 686 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 625 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 710 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
331 picks · 779 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
326 picks · 337 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
319 picks · 520 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
Virtus.pro 55%One Move 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
48% · 43 games48% · 138 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomNoticed
47% · 279 games40% · 161 game
Death ProphetAinkrad
Death Prophet
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
54% · 88 games50% · 73 games
DawnbreakerAfterLife
Dawnbreaker
Chen
ChenFng
59% · 80 games50% · 10 games
GrimstrokePanto
Grimstroke
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
59% · 76 games48% · 184 games
ClockwerkXakoda
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct33:13
Virtus.pro 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
48% · 86 games47% · 37 games
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
Troll Warlord
Doom
DoomNoticed
55% · 251 game48% · 46 games
ZeusAinkrad
Zeus
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
52% · 69 games46% · 170 games
TimbersawAfterLife
Timbersaw
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFng
49% · 210 games51% · 244 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
57% · 63 games49% · 182 games
BatriderPanto
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2