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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
mellojul · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Malady · 6 games
50%

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 10 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
57%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Lukas · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
497 picks · 528 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
446 picks · 224 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 686 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 625 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 712 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
331 picks · 781 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
327 picks · 338 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
320 picks · 521 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Natus Vincere 63%MoneyMakers 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
58% · 430 games39% · 56 games
Phantom AssassinLukas
Phantom Assassin
Earthshaker
Earthshakermellojul
54% · 103 games50% · 136 games
Keeper of the LightEgor
Keeper of the Light
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
44% · 162 games51% · 78 games
DawnbreakerBb3px
Dawnbreaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magexsvampire
49% · 207 games48% · 440 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMalady
47% · 36 games52% · 228 games
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct33:19
Natus Vincere 68%MoneyMakers 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShigetsu
46% · 69 games53% · 73 games
Faceless VoidLukas
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
56% · 125 games46% · 48 games
Shadow FiendEgor
Shadow Fiend
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
49% · 68 games56% · 121 game
BeastmasterBb3px
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockMalady
little data38% · 39 games
PhoenixBignum
Phoenix
Lion
Lionxsvampire
48% · 44 games54% · 25 games
Vengeful SpiritCeMaTheSlayeR
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 78%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2