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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Universitario Esportswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Universitario Esports

No games played over 6 months.

NoPing VPN

Underlord
Underlordsignature
drakeel · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silencer
Accel · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
sl4d1n- · 6 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sl4d1n- · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Zxca · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Oscar · 5 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Yor · 5 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
519 picks · 554 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 230 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
412 picks · 725 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
371 picks · 636 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
348 picks · 348 bans
47%
Morphling
Morphling
342 picks · 710 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
331 picks · 796 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 521 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:13
Universitario Esports 53%NoPing VPN 47%
The model gave 53% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 47:37.
Game 2prediction missed42:28
Universitario Esports 53%NoPing VPN 47%
The model gave 53% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 37:30.
Game 3prediction missed21:35
Universitario Esports 53%NoPing VPN 47%
The model gave 53% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 42:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 53%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3