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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Qhaliwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Mirana
Mirana
Nuages · 19 games
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 18 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Jupiter · 8 games
13%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 7 games
29%
Muerta
Muerta
mini-` · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
mini-` · 6 games
33%

Qhali

Snapfire
Snapfire
MonHty · 13 games
31%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 11 games
27%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Robo-Z · 8 games
38%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 7 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkz
MonHty · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 6 games
33%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MonHty · 5 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Luis · 5 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
522 picks · 556 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 229 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 725 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 638 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
351 picks · 348 bans
47%
Morphling
Morphling
342 picks · 709 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
330 picks · 796 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 522 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 27%
Hero pool strength57% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:44
Infamous 58%Qhali 42%
The model gave 58% on Infamous — the game was taken by Qhali in 1:02:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingmini-`
59% · 141 game44% · 201 game
Ember SpiritRobo-Z
Ember Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMr.Jeans
49% · 147 games54% · 81 game
Faceless VoidCucahook
Faceless Void
Brewmaster
BrewmasterHyko
40% · 45 games48% · 77 games
VisageHermit
Visage
Venomancer
VenomancerNuages
56% · 63 games54% · 38 games
Earth SpiritMonHty
Earth Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJupiter
42% · 12 games31% · 11 games
GrimstrokeLuis
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct22:15
Infamous 59%Qhali 41%
The model gave 59% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblademini-`
49% · 133 games59% · 155 games
BloodseekerCucahook
Bloodseeker
Timbersaw
TimbersawHyko
40% · 99 games53% · 87 games
ZeusRobo-Z
Zeus
Kunkka
KunkkaMr.Jeans
44% · 47 games41% · 57 games
BrewmasterHermit
Brewmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNuages
53% · 79 games57% · 56 games
GyrocopterMonHty
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyJupiter
48% · 234 games54% · 237 games
Treant ProtectorLuis
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed15:35
Infamous 61%Qhali 39%
The model gave 61% on Infamous — the game was taken by Qhali in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertamini-`
52% · 12 games44% · 89 games
SvenCucahook
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMr.Jeans
46% · 240 games51% · 60 games
KunkkaRobo-Z
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerHyko
53% · 91 game51% · 97 games
VisageHermit
Visage
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNuages
49% · 231 game47% · 184 games
Monkey KingMonHty
Monkey King
Lion
LionJupiter
56% · 40 games57% · 184 games
Treant ProtectorLuis
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 67%
Series resultQhali 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3