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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Hellscream · 10 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 10 games
60%

SIBE Team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
38%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
528 picks · 565 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
454 picks · 227 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 736 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 651 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
353 picks · 351 bans
47%
Morphling
Morphling
340 picks · 715 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
333 picks · 800 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
328 picks · 685 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 25%
Hero pool strength62% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
Nemiga Gaming 70%SIBE Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
55% · 84 games44% · 53 games
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
Phantom Assassin
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
61% · 108 games41% · 407 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
54% · 251 game52% · 117 games
Dark Seerklassnokruto
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressRodjER
55% · 150 games39% · 69 games
Lionvelheor
Lion
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
52% · 53 games
Game 2prediction correct17:5
Nemiga Gaming 71%SIBE Team 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
38% · 55 games55% · 209 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierCorrupted
53% · 269 games38% · 62 games
Invokererase
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
56% · 218 games58% · 266 games
Beastmasterklassnokruto
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
43% · 60 games52% · 104 games
Linavelheor
Lina
Oracle
OracleRodjER
43% · 39 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2