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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
StoRmwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
dark · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Lagoona · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
dark · 6 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
meLes · 6 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
50%

StoRm

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 6 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 6 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
OneJey · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 6 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
OneJey · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
528 picks · 566 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
454 picks · 226 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 741 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 653 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
354 picks · 351 bans
47%
Morphling
Morphling
340 picks · 715 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 803 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
327 picks · 688 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:38
Matreshka Team 52%StoRm 48%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by StoRm in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRetsu
50% · 215 games59% · 227 games
BeastmasterDominic
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakermeLes
49% · 141 game56% · 175 games
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
37% · 81 game54% · 267 games
Tusknicky`cool
Tusk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLagoona
38% · 30 games47% · 134 games
TechiesOneJey
Techies
Disruptor
Disruptordark
51% · 336 games
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Matreshka Team 54%StoRm 46%
The model gave 54% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRetsu
42% · 31 game49% · 232 games
Tusknicky`cool
Tusk
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
49% · 184 games51% · 105 games
UnderlordDominic
Underlord
Legion Commander
Legion CommandermeLes
52% · 60 games52% · 185 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Treant Protector
Treant Protectordark
48% · 196 games48% · 73 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLagoona
54% · 124 games
Game 3prediction missed13:42
Matreshka Team 51%StoRm 49%
The model gave 51% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by StoRm in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinRetsu
53% · 20 games53% · 92 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
50% · 194 games53% · 66 games
TidehunterDominic
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsmeLes
48% · 78 games46% · 82 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLagoona
48% · 15 games55% · 92 games
Skywrath MageOneJey
Skywrath Mage
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritdark
43% · 25 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 54%
Series resultStoRm 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3