The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AcatSukiwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AcatSuki
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Treant Protector
Nuages · 18 games
Mirana
Nuages · 17 games
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
Rubick
Jupiter · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 7 games
Muerta
mini-` · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
mini-` · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
537 picks · 578 bans
Rubick
459 picks · 227 bans
Batrider
414 picks · 752 bans
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 663 bans
Spirit Breaker
358 picks · 356 bans
Morphling
339 picks · 714 bans
Timbersaw
332 picks · 808 bans
Undying
330 picks · 523 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength53% AcatSuki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:3
AcatSuki 34%Infamous 66%
The model gave 66% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 20:25.
Game 2prediction correct27:5
AcatSuki 34%Infamous 66%
The model gave 66% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 22:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 66%
Series resultAcatSuki 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2