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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Sexyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
27%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
30%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 10 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Panto · 10 games
10%

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 13 games
77%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 9 games
100%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 8 games
88%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
547 picks · 584 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
460 picks · 228 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 759 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 667 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
360 picks · 359 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
338 picks · 715 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 809 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
331 picks · 704 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength64% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:39
One Move 45%Team Sexy 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 50:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
49% · 64 games54% · 128 games
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Timbersaw
TimbersawAinkrad
45% · 116 games54% · 386 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAfterLife
47% · 66 games54% · 108 games
Riki7jesu
Riki
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
36% · 24 games51% · 42 games
Gyrocopter9Class
Gyrocopter
Rubick
RubickPanto
49% · 416 games58% · 22 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed33:10
One Move 45%Team Sexy 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by One Move in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAinkrad
50% · 58 games52% · 61 game
RazorNefrit
Razor
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
51% · 140 games54% · 134 games
LeshracMirage
Leshrac
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAfterLife
40% · 63 games53% · 154 games
Monkey King7jesu
Monkey King
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanto
33% · 10 games54% · 42 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
46% · 184 games54% · 64 games
Io9Class
Io
Game 3prediction missed47:18
One Move 42%Team Sexy 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by One Move in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMunkushi~
62% · 67 games52% · 178 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
41% · 266 games50% · 238 games
Slark7jesu
Slark
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAfterLife
36% · 49 games48% · 296 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePanto
57% · 111 games57% · 40 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Rubick
RubickXakoda
45% · 367 games58% · 108 games
Io9Class
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 57%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3