The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 3:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Batridersignature
天命 · 11 games
Doomsignature
Chalice · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 10 games
Pugnasignature
天命 · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 9 games
Xtreme Gaming
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 22 games
Miranasignature
Dy · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
Rubick
Kaka · 19 games
Doomsignature
JT- · 15 games
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 14 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ghost · 13 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
564 picks · 607 bans
Rubick
464 picks · 238 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 791 bans
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 697 bans
Spirit Breaker
370 picks · 374 bans
Timbersaw
341 picks · 832 bans
Doom
340 picks · 722 bans
Morphling
338 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total52% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:32
Azure Ray 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelou
Queen of PainXm
Outworld DestroyerSomnus
SlarkGhost
BrewmasterChalice
MarsJT-
Rubickfy
MiranaDy
Clockwerk天命
Treant ProtectorXinQ
Game 2prediction correct19:37
Azure Ray 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelou
MorphlingGhost
InvokerSomnus
BrewmasterJT-
Legion CommanderChalice
PangolierXm
Shadow Shamanfy
PhoenixDy
Undying天命
Earth SpiritXinQ
Game 3prediction missed35:28
Azure Ray 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelou
Phantom AssassinGhost
LinaSomnus
Outworld DestroyerXm
SilencerChalice
MarsJT-
Doomfy
MiranaXinQ
Clockwerk天命
UndyingDy
Game 4prediction correct42:18
Azure Ray 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinglou
Faceless VoidGhost
Queen of PainSomnus
RazorXm
VenomancerChalice
MagnusJT-
Invoker天命
RubickXinQ
Clockwerkfy
EnchantressDy
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 52%
Series resultAzure Ray 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 4