The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Mirana
solji · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 14 games
Rubick
solji · 8 games
Chaos Knight
Berna · 7 games
Disruptor
albinozebra · 7 games
Lichsignature
albinozebra · 6 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
B8 Esports
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
567 picks · 611 bans
Rubick
461 picks · 239 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 795 bans
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 699 bans
Spirit Breaker
371 picks · 378 bans
Doom
342 picks · 723 bans
Timbersaw
342 picks · 834 bans
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 728 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Felt
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:25
Felt 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Felt — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordFayde
GyrocopterV-Tune
Miranasolji
SlardarStoneBank
Lichalbinozebra
EarthshakerDendi
47% · 32 games
LionCTOMAHEH1
43% · 131 game
MarciKidaro
Game 2prediction missed4:27
Felt 53%B8 Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Felt — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 18:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerFayde
Faceless VoidV-Tune
Bounty Huntersolji
Primal BeastDendi
Undyingalbinozebra
Night StalkerStoneBank
45% · 319 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
44% · 9 games
GrimstrokeKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 56%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2