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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 22 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 19 games
53%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 14 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
79%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ghost · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 12 games
67%

Azure Ray

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomsignature
Chalice · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 10 games
70%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
天命 · 10 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Chalice · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
574 picks · 609 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
464 picks · 241 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 798 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 706 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
374 picks · 381 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
343 picks · 726 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
342 picks · 834 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 734 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:25
Xtreme Gaming 54%Azure Ray 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageGhost
43% · 3 games51% · 29 games
Troll Warlordlou
Troll Warlord
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJT-
53% · 93 games49% · 29 games
RazorSomnus
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
46% · 47 games33% · 10 games
BrewmasterChalice
Brewmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritXinQ
53% · 27 games54% · 38 games
Dark Willowfy
Dark Willow
Warlock
WarlockDy
little data50% · 64 games
Dawnbreaker天命
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction missed21:41
Xtreme Gaming 52%Azure Ray 48%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXm
59% · 126 games53% · 67 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGhost
49% · 111 games49% · 118 games
PuckSomnus
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXinQ
46% · 87 games55% · 16 games
Night StalkerChalice
Night Stalker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerJT-
52% · 72 games34% · 57 games
Invoker天命
Invoker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDy
54% · 19 games53% · 157 games
Clockwerkfy
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed9:35
Xtreme Gaming 51%Azure Ray 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 24:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGhost
46% · 230 games55% · 95 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckXm
51% · 199 games52% · 264 games
PangolierSomnus
Pangolier
Razor
RazorJT-
54% · 53 games49% · 23 games
Witch DoctorChalice
Witch Doctor
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
49% · 75 games48% · 222 games
Doomfy
Doom
Silencer
SilencerDy
44% · 292 games52% · 245 games
Batrider天命
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 55%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3