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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 14 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 12 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 10 games
40%
Io
Iosignature
Husky · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Moo · 8 games
50%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
11%
Techies
Techiessignature
FrancisLee · 9 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 5 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
580 picks · 620 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
463 picks · 243 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 813 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 720 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
343 picks · 744 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
343 picks · 840 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
339 picks · 721 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total51% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
nouns 50%Wildcard Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 56:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
47% · 127 games47% · 251 game
TimbersawRCY
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomMoo
51% · 186 games48% · 82 games
SvenSammyboy
Sven
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGunnar
50% · 35 games54% · 79 games
RazorSunlight
Razor
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
51% · 258 games42% · 173 games
PhoenixHusky
Phoenix
Mirana
MiranaYamSun
54% · 199 games56% · 220 games
Treant ProtectorTaiga
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct13:29
nouns 50%Wildcard Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenK1
42% · 57 games43% · 22 games
GyrocopterSammyboy
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckGunnar
51% · 92 games51% · 242 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoo
51% · 198 games54% · 87 games
Dark SeerSunlight
Dark Seer
Lion
LionLelis
58% · 28 games45% · 33 games
Earth SpiritTaiga
Earth Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionYamSun
47% · 20 games47% · 11 games
Vengeful SpiritHusky
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct23:16
nouns 50%Wildcard Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaK1
60% · 87 games46% · 169 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Doom
DoomMoo
44% · 250 games45% · 35 games
GyrocopterSammyboy
Gyrocopter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGunnar
62% · 158 games39% · 81 game
Legion CommanderSunlight
Legion Commander
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
54% · 289 games47% · 691 game
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaYamSun
61% · 299 games44% · 107 games
DawnbreakerHusky
Dawnbreaker
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 51%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3