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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 6 games
83%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
83%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
iceice · 5 games
100%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 5 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
7e · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
7e · 5 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 5 games
80%

Aster.Aries

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 12 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 9 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 9 games
33%
Marci
Marci
生死 · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
RedPanda · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
586 picks · 621 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
464 picks · 244 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
427 picks · 814 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 722 bans
49%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
344 picks · 841 bans
50%
Doom
Doom
343 picks · 750 bans
54%
Morphling
Morphling
340 picks · 719 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 42%
Hero pool strength67% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Team Zero 65%Aster.Aries 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 32:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCty
60% · 137 games47% · 33 games
GyrocopterUlu
Gyrocopter
Invoker
Invoker7e
52% · 67 games43% · 112 games
Mars生死
Mars
Underlord
UnderlordBEYOND
59% · 47 games40% · 17 games
Vengeful SpiritXwy
Vengeful Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionzzq
40% · 12 games47% · 281 game
SnapfireRedPanda
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskiceice
54% · 231 game45% · 51 game
Earth Spiritmercy
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct30:16
Team Zero 67%Aster.Aries 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCty
63% · 22 games47% · 132 games
Templar AssassinXwy
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomBEYOND
51% · 195 games50% · 49 games
SpectreUlu
Spectre
Pangolier
Pangolier7e
53% · 252 games52% · 120 games
Dark Seer生死
Dark Seer
Batrider
Batridericeice
56% · 185 games41% · 295 games
SnapfireRedPanda
Snapfire
Warlock
Warlockzzq
71% · 3 games38% · 61 game
Earth Spiritmercy
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 75%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2