The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Azure Ray
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
Doomsignature
Chalice · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
Pugnasignature
天命 · 10 games
Batridersignature
天命 · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
588 picks · 620 bans
Rubick
464 picks · 244 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 815 bans
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 723 bans
Timbersaw
345 picks · 842 bans
Doom
342 picks · 749 bans
Morphling
340 picks · 719 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:12
Invictus Gaming 35%Azure Ray 65%
The model gave 65% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 36:20.
Game 2prediction correct18:30
Invictus Gaming 35%Azure Ray 65%
The model gave 65% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 37:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 65%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2