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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 35 games
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 30 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 29 games
59%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
SumaiL · 28 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Fantasy · 22 games
68%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 22 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 19 games
53%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 14 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaka · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
587 picks · 618 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
464 picks · 244 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 815 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 723 bans
49%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
344 picks · 842 bans
50%
Doom
Doom
342 picks · 748 bans
54%
Morphling
Morphling
340 picks · 718 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Team Aster 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
46% · 94 games49% · 36 games
RazorGhost
Razor
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMonet
52% · 109 games56% · 19 games
Outworld DestroyerXm
Outworld Destroyer
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
48% · 127 games47% · 168 games
Primal BeastJT-
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
49% · 72 games47% · 195 games
TechiesDy
Techies
Lion
LionKaka
59% · 50 games56% · 34 games
Earth SpiritXinQ
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct29:6
Team Aster 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
61% · 32 games49% · 31 game
GyrocopterGhost
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
53% · 198 games44% · 44 games
ViperXm
Viper
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
43% · 21 game47% · 283 games
Primal BeastJT-
Primal Beast
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKaka
54% · 193 games42% · 170 games
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaFantasy
58% · 201 game46% · 117 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed12:26
Team Aster 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 48:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
61% · 51 game41% · 196 games
BloodseekerGhost
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
53% · 169 games51% · 157 games
MarsJT-
Mars
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
52% · 55 games50% · 71 game
OmniknightXm
Omniknight
Mirana
MiranaFantasy
51% · 112 games53% · 99 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Batrider
BatriderKaka
52% · 160 games37% · 24 games
Ancient ApparitionDy
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 64%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3