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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravensloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ravens

Disruptor
Disruptor
d1smar · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
TaO · 4 games
25%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Cara · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Cara · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaO · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 2 games
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Cara · 2 games
50%

The Cut

Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silencersignature
empyrean5 · 9 games
78%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 9 games
56%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
bgod · 8 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
bgod · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
587 picks · 618 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
464 picks · 244 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 815 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 723 bans
49%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
344 picks · 842 bans
50%
Doom
Doom
342 picks · 748 bans
54%
Morphling
Morphling
340 picks · 718 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ravens 54%The Cut 46%
The model gave 54% on Ravens — the game was taken by The Cut.
Game 2prediction missed
Ravens 54%The Cut 46%
The model gave 54% on Ravens — the game was taken by The Cut.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 54%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2