The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLBLucky Birdloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
goonswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lucky Bird
Underlordoften banned
Satoshi- · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Argius · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
goons
Rubicksignature
Giant · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
AfrOmoush · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Boris · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Techiesoften banned
Giant · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
Underlordoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
587 picks · 620 bans
Rubick
465 picks · 245 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 817 bans
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
Ember Spirit
372 picks · 726 bans
Timbersaw
344 picks · 841 bans
Doom
342 picks · 753 bans
Morphling
340 picks · 717 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:35
Lucky Bird 39%goons 61%
The model gave 61% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCarJua
Naga SirenBoris
Underlordblessed kid
EarthshakerMTD
38% · 11 games
InvokerLil_Nick
50% · 31 game
Phoenixempyrean5
64% · 28 games
ClockwerkGiant
Game 2prediction correct14:30
Lucky Bird 42%goons 58%
The model gave 58% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerCarJua
GyrocopterBoris
Dark Seerblessed kid
Ember SpiritMTD
51% · 20 games
VisageLil_Nick
55% · 17 games
MarciGiant
52% · 52 games
Silencerempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 64%
Series resultgoons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2