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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
11%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
13%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 6 games
33%

TiltedBoys

Doom
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 8 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skyward · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
Skyward · 6 games
83%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
USH · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
589 picks · 620 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
466 picks · 247 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 819 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
372 picks · 727 bans
49%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
344 picks · 841 bans
50%
Doom
Doom
343 picks · 755 bans
54%
Morphling
Morphling
340 picks · 715 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
B8 Esports 50%TiltedBoys 50%
The model gave 50% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidV-Tune
29% · 13 games53% · 54 games
Dark Willowmonkeys-forever
Dark Willow
Earthshaker
EarthshakerDendi
69% · 9 games
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderStoneBank
38% · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
44% · 14 games
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
56% · 14 games
Game 2prediction missed30:20
B8 Esports 47%TiltedBoys 53%
The model gave 53% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerV-Tune
69% · 12 games48% · 53 games
Lycanmonkeys-forever
Lycan
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerStoneBank
39% · 14 games
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDendi
50% · 16 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
53% · 11 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKidaro
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 51%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2