European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DOGSENTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 6 games
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
Void Spirit
niche · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
Jakiro
Undyne_ · 4 games
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
DOGSENT
Jakiro
Nagato · 3 games
Dazzle
Nagato · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
islA · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Hoodwink
Atoufix · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Marci
Atoufix · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
514 picks · 419 bans
Hoodwink
479 picks · 254 bans
Phoenix
478 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
415 picks · 358 bans
Beastmaster
363 picks · 816 bans
Puck
356 picks · 868 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% DOGSENT
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total89% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ilbirs eSports 89%DOGSENT 11%
The model gave 89% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports.
Game 2prediction correct53:13
Ilbirs eSports 73%DOGSENT 27%
The model gave 73% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezbashka
Tinyxannii
Void Spiritniche
TechiesAtoufix
UnderlordfortniteMan
PhoenixUndyne_
HoodwinkPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 89%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2