The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 13 games
Void Spiritsignature
red2 · 10 games
Doomoften banned
Speeed · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 8 games
Silencersignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Speeed · 7 games
Rubick
FrancisLee · 7 games
Clinkz
MoOz · 6 games
Lucky Bird
Underlordoften banned
Satoshi- · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Argius · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
600 picks · 630 bans
Rubick
473 picks · 254 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 840 bans
Spirit Breaker
380 picks · 386 bans
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 743 bans
Doom
350 picks · 768 bans
Timbersaw
345 picks · 845 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 760 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 35%
Hero pool strength61% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:11
Team DogChamp 65%Lucky Bird 35%
The model gave 65% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassindnm
LifestealerCarJua
Ember Spiritred2
Beastmasterblessed kid
Dark SeerSpeeed
TinyMoOz
SilencerBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Team DogChamp 64%Lucky Bird 36%
The model gave 64% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawSpeeed
TerrorbladeCarJua
Templar Assassinred2
Marsblessed kid
Slarkdnm
LionMoOz
SilencerBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 75%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2