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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PlayTimeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 34 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
48%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 15 games
47%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 11 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Akashi · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
514 picks · 419 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 252 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 539 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 355 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
414 picks · 358 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
363 picks · 814 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 867 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 203 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 29%PlayTime 71%
The model gave 71% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime.
Game 2prediction missed29:16
Yellow Submarine 29%PlayTime 71%
The model gave 71% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 34:02.
Game 3prediction missed29:18
Yellow Submarine 29%PlayTime 71%
The model gave 71% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:43.
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 71%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3