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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 25 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 16 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 13 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 13 games
54%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 34 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
37%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 26 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
79%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 19 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
514 picks · 421 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 254 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 539 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 356 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
413 picks · 357 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
363 picks · 812 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 865 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 203 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
Nemiga Gaming 40%1w Team 60%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomselfhate
52% · 175 games52% · 17 games
Necrophosv1olent-
Necrophos
Tiny
Tinyyoung G
49% · 309 games42% · 375 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Axe
AxeCovisnine
51% · 191 game59% · 345 games
Batriderмистер мораль
Batrider
Techies
Techiesariel
53% · 53 games48% · 138 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorVaniLLl
46% · 302 games52% · 155 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct17:33
Nemiga Gaming 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyselfhate
49% · 295 games47% · 74 games
Alchemistv1olent-
Alchemist
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painyoung G
49% · 222 games47% · 391 game
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCovisnine
71% · 3 games52% · 190 games
Kunkkaмистер мораль
Kunkka
Tusk
Tuskariel
45% · 327 games54% · 225 games
Muertaswedenstrong
Muerta
Silencer
SilencerVaniLLl
50% · 101 game58% · 68 games
OracleRein
Oracle
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 69%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2