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BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
GH · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 15 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 10 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 12 games
67%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Hellscream · 10 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
623 picks · 676 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
485 picks · 296 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
431 picks · 899 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 810 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
385 picks · 393 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
382 picks · 859 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 933 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 416 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:16
Nigma Galaxy 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
51% · 188 games38% · 31 game
Troll Warlordv1olent-
Troll Warlord
Batrider
BatriderMinD_ContRoL
53% · 295 games49% · 218 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorKuroKy
62% · 41 game53% · 31 game
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
46% · 72 games52% · 48 games
ChenRodjER
Chen
43% · 268 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct27:4
Nigma Galaxy 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuma
55% · 54 games46% · 74 games
Drow Rangerv1olent-
Drow Ranger
Underlord
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
47% · 39 games39% · 99 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Chen
ChenKuroKy
59% · 55 games50% · 73 games
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Disruptor
DisruptorGH
51% · 176 games44% · 37 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
57% · 41 game
Elder TitanRodjER
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2