?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
GH · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 14 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%

KZ TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 18 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Mirana
Miranasignature
dEsire · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
623 picks · 676 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
485 picks · 292 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
431 picks · 895 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 809 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 393 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
382 picks · 859 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 926 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 416 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
Nigma Galaxy 52%KZ TEAM 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuma
62% · 28 games44% · 66 games
Monkey KingNande
Monkey King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
52% · 87 games46% · 34 games
WindrangerW1sh-
Windranger
Chen
ChenKuroKy
59% · 46 games41% · 15 games
AxeSkyLark
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
44% · 46 games59% · 43 games
OracleSsaSpartan
Oracle
42% · 49 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct42:26
Nigma Galaxy 54%KZ TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoYuma
49% · 16 games42% · 57 games
Phantom AssassinNande
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
57% · 313 games47% · 89 games
WindrangerW1sh-
Windranger
Disruptor
DisruptorGH
53% · 302 games53% · 371 game
MiranadEsire
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
49% · 321 game47% · 56 games
Legion CommanderSkyLark
Legion Commander
47% · 379 games
UndyingSsaSpartan
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2