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1XPLORE Asia #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Visionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 10 games
40%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
423 · 5 games
80%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 5 games
20%

Vision

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
622 picks · 676 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
479 picks · 288 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 891 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 393 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 806 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
381 picks · 859 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 416 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
352 picks · 920 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% IHC Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:20
IHC Esports 78%Vision 22%
The model gave 78% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Vision in 33:32.
Game 2prediction correct35:16
IHC Esports 78%Vision 22%
The model gave 78% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 35:48.
Game 3prediction missed15:37
IHC Esports 78%Vision 22%
The model gave 78% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Vision in 38:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 78%
Series resultVision 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3