?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Luna Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 11 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 10 games
80%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 8 games
88%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
MiLAN · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
MiLAN · 7 games
57%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
MiLAN · 7 games
86%

Luna Galaxy

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Xakoda · 12 games
83%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 10 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
63%
Slark
Slarksignature
Shad · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
621 picks · 676 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
477 picks · 288 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 890 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 393 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 805 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
381 picks · 859 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 416 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
351 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:3
Level UP 62%Luna Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenDaxak
46% · 94 games52% · 176 games
LeshracAdzantick
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
51% · 229 games58% · 122 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Enigma
EnigmaOwnedMe
45% · 265 games52% · 139 games
SlarkShad
Slark
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
53% · 196 games56% · 94 games
IoDukalis
Io
Silencer
SilencerMiLAN
44% · 311 games44% · 564 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct33:10
Level UP 66%Luna Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
50% · 276 games50% · 70 games
SvenShad
Sven
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDaxak
50% · 147 games48% · 319 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderOwnedMe
44% · 106 games53% · 110 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Silencer
SilencerMiLAN
44% · 280 games58% · 157 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Keeper of the Light
Io
Ioswedenstrong
52% · 83 games50% · 236 games
TechiesDukalis
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 76%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2