BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Luna Galaxywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Luna Galaxy
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 16 games
Miranasignature
Xakoda · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 11 games
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
Underlordsignature
Davai · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
624 picks · 676 bans
Rubick
473 picks · 289 bans
Batrider
428 picks · 890 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
Doom
382 picks · 860 bans
Ember Spirit
381 picks · 807 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 416 bans
Beastmaster
350 picks · 916 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:26
Alliance 61%Luna Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 58:27.
Game 2prediction missed9:23
Alliance 61%Luna Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 35:40.
Game 3prediction missed17:36
Alliance 61%Luna Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 44:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 61%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3