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BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Kiritych · 10 games
30%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 10 games
30%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fng · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 10 games
50%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
80%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 8 games
88%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 8 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
MiLAN · 8 games
63%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
MiLAN · 7 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
624 picks · 678 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
472 picks · 288 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
427 picks · 891 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
383 picks · 862 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
381 picks · 807 bans
48%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 416 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
350 picks · 916 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 76%
Hero pool strength59% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:30
Virtus.pro 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 57:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKiritych
58% · 213 games42% · 302 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Snapfire
SnapfireSquad1x
49% · 503 games43% · 196 games
WindrangerLorenof
Windranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
54% · 468 games50% · 259 games
Primal BeastOwnedMe
Primal Beast
Techies
Techiessayuw
56% · 411 games44% · 723 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Lich
LichFng
56% · 191 game48% · 306 games
SilencerMiLAN
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed32:24
Virtus.pro 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
50% · 292 games50% · 304 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNoticed
42% · 288 games58% · 253 games
Faceless VoidDaxak
Faceless Void
Tiny
TinySquad1x
48% · 450 games57% · 162 games
Dark SeerOwnedMe
Dark Seer
Batrider
BatriderFng
49% · 355 games47% · 344 games
SilencerMiLAN
Silencer
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesayuw
47% · 163 games54% · 485 games
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct15:33
Virtus.pro 48%Level UP 52%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 46:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
52% · 227 games49% · 150 games
Templar AssassinLorenof
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
53% · 149 games47% · 159 games
EnigmaMiLAN
Enigma
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNoticed
62% · 92 games52% · 137 games
VisageDaxak
Visage
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
52% · 106 games43% · 219 games
Primal BeastOwnedMe
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderFng
45% · 172 games47% · 81 game
Lionswedenstrong
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 55%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3