Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 3:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Liquidloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 58 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 32 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 29 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 27 games
Snapfire
Larl · 26 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 39 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 27 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
630 picks · 679 bans
Rubick
480 picks · 302 bans
Batrider
434 picks · 901 bans
Doom
399 picks · 879 bans
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 821 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
Pugna
362 picks · 422 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 940 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Spirit 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Spirit 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Game 3prediction missed
Team Spirit 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Game 4prediction missed
Team Spirit 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 59%
Series resultTeam Spirit 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4