Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Techiessignature
Save- · 33 games
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 32 games
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 32 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 30 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 30 games
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 27 games
Tiny
gpK~ · 23 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 59 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 48 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 43 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 41 game
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 38 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 37 games
Underlordsignature
Ace · 34 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
636 picks · 684 bans
Rubick
501 picks · 322 bans
Batrider
434 picks · 916 bans
Doom
418 picks · 906 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 838 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 857 bans
Beastmaster
370 picks · 961 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total70% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
BETBOOM TEAM 30%Gaimin Gladiators 70%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM.
Game 2prediction missed30:15
BETBOOM TEAM 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNightfall
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
PuckgpK~
DoomAce
AxePure~
PangolierQuinn
TechiesSave-
SnapfiretOfu
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
RubickSeleri
Game 3prediction correct14:27
BETBOOM TEAM 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautNightfall
Medusadyrachyo
Storm SpiritgpK~
LeshracQuinn
TidehunterPure~
Dark SeerAce
TechiesSave-
UndyingSeleri
BatriderTORONTOTOKYO
DisruptortOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 70%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3