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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 31 game
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 28 games
68%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Larl · 26 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%

BETBOOM TEAM

Doom
Doomsignature
Pure~ · 32 games
66%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 32 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 31 game
74%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 30 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 29 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 27 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 26 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
Save- · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 688 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
513 picks · 331 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
433 picks · 921 bans
52%
Doom
Doom
426 picks · 919 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 848 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
385 picks · 390 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
379 picks · 868 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
377 picks · 977 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:23
Team Spirit 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
44% · 160 games55% · 212 games
MorphlingNightfall
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerLarl
46% · 153 games53% · 106 games
LycanPure~
Lycan
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
58% · 172 games45% · 228 games
Primal BeastgpK~
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
52% · 390 games51% · 184 games
TechiesSave-
Techies
Lion
LionMira
50% · 96 games46% · 241 game
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Game 2prediction correct15:32
Team Spirit 45%BETBOOM TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYatoro
53% · 96 games49% · 77 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
51% · 270 games51% · 444 games
TinygpK~
Tiny
Mars
MarsCollapse
51% · 175 games51% · 138 games
TidehunterPure~
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaMira
55% · 310 games53% · 160 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
41% · 285 games47% · 317 games
BatriderTORONTOTOKYO
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed21:35
Team Spirit 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:12:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
51% · 181 game48% · 430 games
Ember SpiritgpK~
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
49% · 441 game51% · 285 games
TerrorbladeNightfall
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
52% · 466 games55% · 57 games
AxePure~
Axe
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
47% · 368 games49% · 320 games
TechiesSave-
Techies
Lion
LionMira
56% · 85 games45% · 449 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 57%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3