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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Q · 30 games
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 29 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 26 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 24 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 23 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 22 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 20 games
70%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 40 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 26 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 25 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 688 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
514 picks · 332 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 918 bans
52%
Doom
Doom
427 picks · 923 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 848 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
383 picks · 390 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
380 picks · 869 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
378 picks · 977 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total75% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:18
Talon Esports 33%Team Liquid 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
41% · 136 games50% · 46 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
49% · 140 games56% · 117 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernJabz
38% · 52 games56% · 110 games
Visagezai
Visage
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerQ
47% · 65 games57% · 263 games
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Silencer
SilencerOli
46% · 201 game57% · 58 games
IoiNSaNiA
Io
Game 2prediction missed37:25
Talon Esports 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
49% · 138 games57% · 142 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Mars
MarsJabz
52% · 89 games46% · 152 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
51% · 126 games50% · 68 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightQ
54% · 98 games50% · 58 games
LionBoxi
Lion
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
42% · 53 games46% · 84 games
IoiNSaNiA
Io
Game 3prediction correct30:21
Talon Esports 36%Team Liquid 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:00:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
50% · 322 games48% · 201 game
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
48% · 509 games49% · 462 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
51% · 196 games52% · 206 games
Broodmotherzai
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyQ
49% · 608 games46% · 776 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
55% · 74 games54% · 64 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 75%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3