Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Batridersignature
Worick · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lefitan · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Lefitan · 11 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 11 games
Rubicksignature
Lil · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Disruptoroften banned
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Slarksignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
644 picks · 689 bans
Rubick
523 picks · 337 bans
Doom
441 picks · 940 bans
Batrider
432 picks · 929 bans
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 856 bans
Storm Spirit
392 picks · 874 bans
Beastmaster
383 picks · 991 bans
Pugna
383 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:34
Hydra 53%Neon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKami
PuckKen
BeastmasterCloud
Faceless VoidFortuneSoul
Storm SpiritWorick
Skywrath MageHishge
Keeper of the LightOneJey
UndyingHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct25:19
Hydra 54%Neon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenKami
MedusaFortuneSoul
BeastmasterCloud
SnapfireKen
HuskarWorick
EnigmaHishge
Skywrath MageOneJey
Shadow DemonHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 58%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2