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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 60 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 31 game
61%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 27 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Larl · 27 games
59%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
63%

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 35 games
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 31 game
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 27 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SumaiL · 27 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
647 picks · 690 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
533 picks · 345 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 956 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
436 picks · 938 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
412 picks · 865 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 877 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
388 picks · 999 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 344 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:13
Team Spirit 55%Team Aster 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackYatoro
49% · 21 game55% · 131 game
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
49% · 372 games50% · 37 games
ClinkzMonet
Clinkz
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
51% · 307 games54% · 147 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMira
49% · 193 games45% · 542 games
RubickFantasy
Rubick
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
49% · 13 games49% · 49 games
LionKaka
Lion
Game 2prediction correct15:4
Team Spirit 53%Team Aster 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYatoro
59% · 195 games49% · 253 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
56% · 310 games54% · 119 games
SlarkMonet
Slark
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
51% · 164 games41% · 268 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
46% · 414 games45% · 477 games
RubickKaka
Rubick
Lion
LionMira
49% · 94 games53% · 60 games
IoFantasy
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 59%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2