Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 9 games
Mirana
Gilgir · 9 games
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 9 games
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
Panto · 9 games
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 12 games
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 9 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
646 picks · 689 bans
Rubick
534 picks · 345 bans
Doom
449 picks · 957 bans
Batrider
433 picks · 940 bans
Ember Spirit
411 picks · 864 bans
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 877 bans
Beastmaster
389 picks · 1000 bans
Void Spirit
389 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
One Move 52%Neon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepore1bl
TerrorbladeFortuneSoul
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Storm SpiritKen
Legion CommanderAfterLife
RubickHishge
ChenPanto
BatriderGilgir
Game 2prediction correct43:16
One Move 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMunkushi~
BloodseekerFortuneSoul
Templar Assassinre1bl
Storm SpiritKen
Dark SeerAfterLife
ClockwerkHishge
BatriderGilgir
DisruptorPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 55%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2