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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 37 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 26 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
68%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 59 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 45 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 41 game
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 41 game
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 36 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 36 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 33 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 32 games
66%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
645 picks · 689 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
531 picks · 345 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 957 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
433 picks · 938 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 863 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
395 picks · 875 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
389 picks · 997 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
389 picks · 344 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 8
Model total63% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:24
Team Liquid 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
50% · 175 games55% · 256 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
43% · 376 games51% · 574 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Visage
Visagezai
49% · 81 game54% · 282 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Rubick
RubickBoxi
49% · 511 games51% · 260 games
Skywrath MagetOfu
Skywrath Mage
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
45% · 324 games55% · 95 games
LionSeleri
Lion
Game 2prediction missed37:17
Team Liquid 42%Gaimin Gladiators 58%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNisha
48% · 214 games49% · 322 games
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
51% · 255 games54% · 71 game
RazorAce
Razor
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
54% · 161 game48% · 410 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
48% · 246 games53% · 363 games
TechiestOfu
Techies
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
48% · 714 games49% · 424 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Game 3prediction missed44:12
Team Liquid 42%Gaimin Gladiators 58%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNisha
54% · 165 games56% · 251 game
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
43% · 187 games52% · 253 games
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderzai
37% · 59 games53% · 294 games
TimbersawAce
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
43% · 477 games58% · 225 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
51% · 211 games51% · 76 games
OracleSeleri
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3