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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 50 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 23 games
57%

Talon Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Q · 31 game
55%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 26 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 23 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 23 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 23 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
Q · 23 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
645 picks · 688 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
530 picks · 343 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
448 picks · 957 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
432 picks · 936 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 861 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
395 picks · 870 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
388 picks · 997 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 344 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:35
PSG Quest 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 52:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerTA2000
43% · 95 games63% · 80 games
Lifestealer23savage
Lifestealer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
58% · 157 games56% · 281 game
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
46% · 325 games48% · 348 games
SnapfireMikoto
Snapfire
Lion
LionOmaR
49% · 76 games48% · 259 games
EnchantressOli
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingKaori
46% · 550 games49% · 235 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct32:9
PSG Quest 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
48% · 227 games54% · 130 games
Lycan23savage
Lycan
Mars
MarsMalik
40% · 177 games47% · 341 game
SnapfireMikoto
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
53% · 340 games48% · 130 games
TidehunterJabz
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
57% · 365 games55% · 330 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
43% · 133 games55% · 311 games
UndyingOli
Undying
Game 3prediction missed20:33
PSG Quest 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 58:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
50% · 360 games47% · 264 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalik
48% · 313 games50% · 676 games
SnapfireMikoto
Snapfire
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
54% · 521 game50% · 507 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Rubick
RubickOmaR
50% · 887 games51% · 449 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Undying
UndyingKaori
47% · 542 games53% · 727 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 53%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3