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Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Bok · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 15 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
42%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 11 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
60%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Shergarat · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 13 games
77%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 12 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shergarat · 10 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
645 picks · 688 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
528 picks · 343 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
447 picks · 957 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 936 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 861 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
395 picks · 868 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
388 picks · 997 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 344 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 23%
Hero pool strength50% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Polaris Esports 58%UALEIKUMNIHAO 42%
The model gave 58% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAkashi
46% · 64 games46% · 70 games
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierMac
50% · 311 games52% · 370 games
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderEnryu
48% · 238 games55% · 389 games
EnigmaShergarat
Enigma
Rubick
RubickBoomy
44% · 550 games57% · 344 games
Treant Protectorb1kA
Treant Protector
Silencer
Silencercml
47% · 217 games53% · 207 games
Shadow DemonMary_y
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed24:29
Polaris Esports 61%UALEIKUMNIHAO 39%
The model gave 61% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAkashi
53% · 318 games49% · 79 games
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Snapfire
SnapfireMac
46% · 479 games50% · 474 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderEnryu
52% · 371 game49% · 363 games
DoomShergarat
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaBoomy
51% · 276 games43% · 813 games
Rubickb1kA
Rubick
Clockwerk
Clockwerkcml
53% · 430 games55% · 145 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 69%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2